Venezuela’s Future: A Chavista Split and Rising Rebellion

Sep 1, 2026

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Can Venezuela escape the fate that Washington has mapped out for it?

Sooner rather than later, a split will occur within Chavismo. Later rather than sooner, there is a significant chance that this split will turn into a rebellion.

Venezuela will increasingly resemble the Colombia of César Gaviria and Álvaro Uribe rather than the Venezuela of the first Rafael Caldera or the first Carlos Andrés Pérez: a reign of oligarchic elites; police and military support from Washington and Israel; a rebellion by Chavistas driven underground (some from the military); repression, propaganda, false-flag operations, “false positives,” clandestine survival…

The magical prosperity promised by the illegitimate and unconstitutional president, Delcy Rodríguez, and by the Socialist Party of Venezuela will not materialize. Before that happens, the United States will have a socialist president. There may be relief for some, which will prolong an artificial status quo, but there will never be prosperity, much less development. There will never be development in any of its possible forms or definitions without true independence, without the dignity of a sovereign people, with one empire whispering in its president’s ear while the other holds a gun to her back.

Even if she smiles, even if she has been seduced by the power and protection of Washington and Tel Aviv, Delcy’s smile is as fake and forced as her promises. Her fate and that of her collaborators are bleak. She will never know peace. When she is no longer useful, Washington will abandon her, just as it abandoned its most servile vassals in the opposition, who will also return like frustrated and resentful vultures to join the new chaos in Bolivarian lands.

As always—as has been the case since the time of Great Britain’s plundering of the Essequibo’s gold in the 19th century— as in the days of the “banana dictators” backed by U.S. oil companies since the early 20th century, it is the Venezuelan people who will lose out—it is almost the entire rest of a population that, just as in Africa and Latin America, has borne the historical curse of being born upon immense riches coveted by the ruling empires.

Jorge Majfud, August 2026.