Trump made a terrible mistake (like so many others) by trying to kidnap Maduro. He will have a show trial, but a complicated one, in the New York courts, and Venezuela will be strengthened against him, since, as we have repeated a thousand times, invading and overthrowing a foreign leader is easy for US elite forces, but then the occupation becomes terribly difficult. That’s why he didn’t put Corina Machado in power, not only because he said she wasn’t respected, but because he needs to extort, as much as possible, a power structure that remained intact.

The objective, more than buying oil from Maduro, is to secure his monopoly so that Iran can be attacked again. A petroleum crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and throughout the Middle East would leave the United States unscathed, would cripple China, and would give Israel free rein to destroy the Iranian government (Israel’s only remaining obstacle) and continue its expansion.

But this plan may well not be perfect. Quite the opposite. In the long run, the invasion of Venezuela will reveal itself as another Hollywood spectacle from Washington, another intervention in a foreign country, and another fiasco in reality. Venezuela did not depend on Maduro as many believe. He wasn’t Saddam Hussein. Even so, Iraq developed its own resilient chaos, like many other cases. Venezuela could be even more decentralized and an unpleasant surprise for Washington.
We have detailed this in several analyses. The last thing I quickly recall was a conversation with a Caracas television channel in mid-December: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aydr8JvhtWE&t=578s

Jorge Majfud, 5 de enero de 2026